Keep or Kill
Should you keep this ad running?
Cost per sale is the product, packing, shipping, fees and returns. We take it from the price for you.
In Ads Manager, use the columns "Amount spent" and "Results" (or "Purchases") for this ad. If your store shows fewer sales than Meta, use your store's number.
See why
Each dot is one ad. Under the green curve: keep. Over the red curve: kill. The curves close in as you spend, because more spend means less luck in the numbers.
New ads
Testing new ads? How many, how long, which setup.
See the maths: Meta's 50 a week, ABO or CBO
Numbers we use
Meta wants about 50 sales in 7 days
The next 7 days at this rate
How many ads one week can judge
ABO or CBO
Questions
When should I turn off a Meta ad?
When the chance that it makes money drops to 20 in 100 or lower. With no sales at all, that happens once the ad has spent about 1.6 times what you keep per sale.
Why does it say too early when I am already up?
A handful of sales can make a bad ad look good by luck alone. Keep needs at least 3 sales and a chance of 80 in 100 or more that each sale really costs less than you keep. Those cut-offs are our choice, not a Meta rule.
Is a low ROAS by evening a reason to kill an ad?
Usually not. With only a few sales, the count jumps around by chance. If you expect 5 sales by evening, seeing 3 or fewer happens about 1 day in 4 even when nothing is wrong.
What does "you keep per sale" mean?
What one sale leaves you after the product, shipping, payment fees and returns, but before ad costs. It is the most you can pay Meta for a sale and still break even.
Why does Meta spend everything on one ad?
Often because the ads look alike, so Meta may treat them as one idea. We can't see inside Meta's system, so treat this as a likely cause, not a proven one. Survive Andromeda shows which of your ads look most alike. If they really are different, give the starved ad its own ad set for a few days.
What can this check not see?
The future, late sales Meta adds to the last few days, and wrong counts. If Meta shows more sales than your store, type your store's number.
Does this connect to my ad account?
No. You type your numbers and the maths runs in your browser. Nothing is sent or stored.
Ad not selling? Find the leak.
Before the click, after it, or the price.
Learning phase guideline from Meta's Business Help Centre: About the learning phase.