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A cute ginger cat holding a kitchen knife in one paw and a slice of cake in the other.

Keep or Kill

Should you keep this ad running?

Each sale cost you
Spend divided by sales CPA
You keep per sale
Your break-even BREAK-EVEN CPA
Chance it makes money
Keep at 80 or more, kill at 20 or less
See why

Each dot is one ad. Under the green curve: keep. Over the red curve: kill. The curves close in as you spend, because more spend means less luck in the numbers.

New ads

Testing new ads? How many, how long, which setup.

How many at once
How long
Setup
See the maths: Meta's 50 a week, ABO or CBO

Numbers we use

Meta wants about 50 sales in 7 days

The next 7 days at this rate

How many ads one week can judge

0

ABO or CBO

Questions

When should I turn off a Meta ad?

When the chance that it makes money drops to 20 in 100 or lower. With no sales at all, that happens once the ad has spent about 1.6 times what you keep per sale.

Why does it say too early when I am already up?

A handful of sales can make a bad ad look good by luck alone. Keep needs at least 3 sales and a chance of 80 in 100 or more that each sale really costs less than you keep. Those cut-offs are our choice, not a Meta rule.

Is a low ROAS by evening a reason to kill an ad?

Usually not. With only a few sales, the count jumps around by chance. If you expect 5 sales by evening, seeing 3 or fewer happens about 1 day in 4 even when nothing is wrong.

What does "you keep per sale" mean?

What one sale leaves you after the product, shipping, payment fees and returns, but before ad costs. It is the most you can pay Meta for a sale and still break even.

Why does Meta spend everything on one ad?

Often because the ads look alike, so Meta may treat them as one idea. We can't see inside Meta's system, so treat this as a likely cause, not a proven one. Survive Andromeda shows which of your ads look most alike. If they really are different, give the starved ad its own ad set for a few days.

What can this check not see?

The future, late sales Meta adds to the last few days, and wrong counts. If Meta shows more sales than your store, type your store's number.

Does this connect to my ad account?

No. You type your numbers and the maths runs in your browser. Nothing is sent or stored.

Ad not selling? Find the leak.

Before the click, after it, or the price.

Learning phase guideline from Meta's Business Help Centre: About the learning phase.